Thursday, September 4th: Informal social evening after dinner
Friday, September 5th: Presentations
Saturday, September 6th: Round-table discussions The meeting shall end at lunchtime on Saturday
------------------------------------------------------------------------------Presentations:
-J. Glasser, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome by isolation or quarantine: evaluation via mathematical modeling”
-S. Riley, Imperial College of Science, Technology & Medicine
-Y. Hsieh, National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan
-N. Becker, The Australian National University, “Controlling emerging infectious diseases like SARS”
-Z. Feng, Purdue University, “Optimal treatment strategies for tuberculosis”
-P. Yan, Health Canada, “Time-series of SARS by time of infection and their usefulness in modelling, a back-calculation approach”
-D. Earn, McMaster University, “Combating pandemics in the 21st century: Lessons from SARS”
-Z. Jacobson, Health Canada, “Robust-Markov-modeling and Decay in Influenza Death Rate and Possible Implications wrt Other Infectious Respiratory Diseases” (tentative)
-H. Zhu, York University, “Critical roles of health care settings in the nonsocomical transmission of SARS”
-A. Gumel, University of Manitoba, “Towards a global strategy for containing SARS”
-J. Watmough, University of New Brunswick, “Multiple group disease transmission models with quarantine”
-F. Brauer, University of British Columbia
Round Table Discussions: Coordinators—F. Brauer and H. Hethcote
*Names indicate those who will open the discussions
1. Mechanism of viral pathogenesis, development of resistance and therapeutics (B. Sahai will start with a short presentation outlining their importance in management and control of viral diseases and the role of mathematical approach in understanding these issues.).
2. What do we know about SARS now, in case of a recurrence? –model contact rates influenced by events and distinguish between fitting data and underlying rules. (Dr. F. Brauer).
3. What can we say about disease outbreaks in general for other possible diseases - analysis of early and incomplete data, constant inflows of infectives, inclusion of health care workers in the model, and modeling of quarantine and isolation? (F. Brauer and S. Riley).
4. Estimation of incubation distributions during infectious disease outbreaks (P. Yan and S. Riley).
5. Possible implications of asymptomatic SARS infections - including a). asmptomatic non-infectious; b) asymptomatic infectious and c) a mixture of the two (S. Riley).
6. Key events via back-calculation, heterogeneity and super-spreading (P. Yan and J. Glasser).
7. How qualitative analysis helps policymakers, legal issues (J. Glasser, A. Gumel, D. Radoeva, Z. Feng and R. Mykitiuk).
8. How the SARS epidemic has influenced people's longer term research goals, if it has(D. Earn. This maybe a good issue to talk about during the Thursday social evening).
9. Stochastic vs. deterministic modeling (J. Watmough).
10. How do we sustain the collaborative research considering the geographical distances? MITACS project renew and specific projects(P. van den Driessche and J. Wu)
Back to the main MITACS-PIMS Health Canada meeting on SARS page.