Uncertainty Modeling in the Analysis of Weather, Climate and Hydrological Extremes (16w5092)


(University of Victoria)

(Norwegian Computing Center)

(Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives)


The Banff International Research Station will host the "Uncertainty Modeling in the Analysis of Weather, Climate and Hydrological Extremes" workshop from June 12th to June 17th, 2016.

Weather, climate and hydrologic extremes have always been of importance in human history. With our changing climate, there has been a growing research effort to understand, model and even predict extreme events at different time and spatial scales in atmospheric and hydrological sciences. High priority should be given to reducing uncertainty in the understanding of historical changes in extremes, which have been recognized as a scientific Grand Challenge by the World Climate Research Programme. This includes the development of improved and comprehensive observational records, the development of better mathematical models and more powerful statistical techniques, the development and refinement of the understanding of the physical processes that produce extremes, and continued improvement in the ability to attribute causes to those changes.

Statistics and probability theory are essential mathematical building
blocks for the analysis of changes in extreme event frequency and intensity.
In this context, this workshop will bring together researchers from the following scientific fields: atmospheric and hydrological sciences on the one hand, and statistics and probability on the other. It seeks to improve our ability to more confidently characterize the extremes of climate variables such as surface air temperatures or precipitation, and to develop improved, and more reliable ways to determine how they are changing and how the various elements of the climate system interact to produce extreme events.

The Banff International Research Station for Mathematical Innovation and Discovery (BIRS) is a collaborative Canada-US-Mexico venture that provides an environment for creative interaction as well as the exchange of ideas, knowledge, and methods within the Mathematical Sciences, with related disciplines and with industry. The research station is located at The Banff Centre in Alberta and is supported by Canada's Natural Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), Alberta's Advanced Education and Technology, and Mexico's Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT)..