# Novel Mathematical & Statistical Approaches to predicting Species' Movement under Climate Change (19frg248)

## Organizers

(Utah State University)

Michael Neubert (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

## Description

The Banff International Research Station will host the "Novel mathematical and statistical approaches to predicting species' movement under climate change" workshop in Banff from July 14, 2019 to July 21, 2019.

Temperature is an important determinant of a species' geographic range. Increasing temperature is one signature of anthropogenic climate change and in order to survive, species will need either to track suitable climate in space---at estimated poleward speeds ranging from 0.08 to 1.26 km yr$^{-1}$ depending on the region---or adapt to the new local climate. This effect of climate change (combined with others) has been predicted to increase the risk of extinction of up to 60% of animal and plant species if global temperatures exceed 2.0ºC. We aim to develop novel quantitative methods to predict how changes in temperature will influence the ability of plants to track shifting habitats in response to climate change. The ability to predict species responses to changing environments are necessary to inform management decisions.

The Banff International Research Station for Mathematical Innovation and Discovery (BIRS) is a collaborative Canada-US-Mexico venture that provides an environment for creative interaction as well as the exchange of ideas, knowledge, and methods within the Mathematical Sciences, with related disciplines and with industry. The research station is located at The Banff Centre in Alberta and is supported by Canada's Natural Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), Alberta's Advanced Education and Technology, and Mexico's Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT).