Prediction and Control of Pandemic Outbreak (10w2173)


Malcolm King (University of Alberta)

(University of Alberta)

(University of British Columbia)


The "Prediction and Control of Pandemic Outbreak" workshop will be hosted at The Banff International Research Station.

Despite recent improvements in diagnostic tools and epidemiological models to determine the transmission dynamic of the spread of the Influenza A viruses, such as H1N1, there are knowledge gaps resulting in less than optimal intervention strategies of control. How exactly does a pathogen like the H1N1 virus get transmitted from person to person, and expand within and among neighbourhoods, cities, countries and continents? How much do known preventative measures (covering mouth while coughing, using mask) reduce the probability of transmission? What is the impact of innovative protection measures (bioaerosol suppressant, new mask design)? Which are the most cost effective measures of containment? are questions that must be answered. Public Health policy makers need to know if simple and less expensive measures to prevent transmission of the novel H1N1 virus are effective, or if more advanced and more expensive measures are necessary to curb an outbreak.rnThis meeting brings together world-class Canadian and foreign experts to identify the most significant factors of virus transmission and plan how to quantify these, so they can be incorporated into an advanced epidemiological model that is capable of taking into account these factors. The meeting will provide a unique opportunity for these experts to interact, since there is usually no common forum of discussion for this diverse group. The outcome of the collaborative work that will result from this meeting will be a new and unique tool for developing efficacious management strategies and interventions to prevent transmission and to control the outbreak of the novel H1N1 virus, as well as other future outbreaks.

The Banff International Research Station for Mathematical Innovation and Discovery (BIRS) is a collaborative Canada-US-Mexico venture that provides an environment for creative interaction as well as the exchange of ideas, knowledge, and methods within the Mathematical Sciences, with related disciplines and with industry. The research station is located at The Banff Centre in Alberta and is supported by Canada's Natural Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), the US National Science Foundation (NSF), Alberta's Advanced Education and Technology, and Mexico's Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACYT).