Schedule for: 25w5380 - MJO Predictability: Its Sources and Limits
Beginning on Sunday, May 25 and ending Friday May 30, 2025
All times in Banff, Alberta time, MDT (UTC-6).
Sunday, May 25 | |
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16:00 - 17:30 | Check-in begins at 16:00 on Sunday and is open 24 hours (Front Desk - Professional Development Centre) |
17:30 - 19:30 |
Dinner ↓ A buffet dinner is served daily between 5:30pm and 7:30pm in Vistas Dining Room, top floor of the Sally Borden Building. (Vistas Dining Room) |
20:00 - 22:00 | Informal gathering (TCPL Foyer) |
Monday, May 26 | |
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07:00 - 08:45 |
Breakfast ↓ Breakfast is served daily between 7 and 9am in the Vistas Dining Room, the top floor of the Sally Borden Building. (Vistas Dining Room) |
08:30 - 09:30 | Boualem Khouider: Research Discussions - BIRS Placeholder Camera Activation (TCPL 201) |
08:45 - 09:00 |
Introduction and Welcome by BIRS Staff ↓ A brief introduction to BIRS with important logistical information, technology instruction, and opportunity for participants to ask questions. (TCPL 201) |
09:00 - 09:30 | Logistics and agenda (TCPL 201) |
09:30 - 09:31 | Plenary of Theme 1: Traditional vs. new definition of MJO predictability and their environmental controls (TCPL 201) |
09:31 - 10:01 | Bo-Wen Shen: Lorenz’s Models (1960–2008): Insights into Predictability Science (TCPL 201) |
10:00 - 10:30 | Coffee Break (TCPL Foyer) |
10:30 - 10:45 | Boualem Khouider: Probabilistic Predictability of the MJO (TCPL 201) |
10:45 - 11:00 | Hyemi Kim: Decrease in MJO predictability following Indo–Pacific Warm Pool Expansion (TCPL 201) |
11:00 - 11:15 | Danni Du: Increase in MJO Predictability under Global Warming (Online) |
11:15 - 11:30 | Aneesh Subramanian: Decadal variability in MJO predictability (Online) |
11:30 - 13:00 |
Lunch ↓ Lunch is served daily between 11:30am and 1:30pm in the Vistas Dining Room, the top floor of the Sally Borden Building. (Vistas Dining Room) |
13:00 - 14:00 |
Poster introductions (2 min each) ↓ Physical posters will be up for the entire workshop.
List of posters:
"An Overview of MJO Research and Prediction Applications at the Naval Research Laboratory" Matthew Janiga
"The Maritime Continent barrier effect on MJO predictability" Hyemi Kim
"Volcanically forced MJO triggers the immediate onset of El Niño" Hyemi Kim
"Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent Barrier Effect on MJO Ensemble Prediction" Abhik Santra
"NAO Influence on the MJO and its Prediction Skill in the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models" Hai Lin
"Sub-seasonal prediction of the MJO at ECMWF: progresses and challenges" Frederic Vitart
"Intraseasonal evolution of moist static energy from long-term, in situ observations from TWP-ARM stations" Pallav Ray
"Improved use of ocean observations at ECMWF for all timescales" Phil Brown
“Combined effects of ENSO and QBO on the enhancement of MJO realization” Tamaki Suematsu
“Analysis on the relationship between Walker circulation strength and eastward movement speed of the MJO” Tamaki Suematsu
"A Unified Method for Opportunity Identification in Accurate Prediction of MJO precipitation" Fei Liu
"Investigation of the source of MJO predictability using AI models" Daehyun Kim
“The Role of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on the Prediction of Madden-Julian Oscillation” Cristiana Stan
“Improving the Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with Gaussian Process Models” Cristiana Stan
"Deep Learning Models for MJO and Sub-seasonal Prediction" Daehyun Kang
"Large-Scale Precipitation Tracking of the MJO in Observations and Models from Mesoscale to Climate Scale" Brandon Kerns
"The Precipitation Partitioning for Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves in Reanalysis Datasets and CMIP6 Models" Kai Huang
"Investigation of the Sources of Ensemble Spread in MJO Prediction Using NeuralGCM" Hera Kim
"Increasing Trend of the MJO Frequency and Precipitation (1979-2023): A Predictability Challenge Across the Weather-Climate Continuum" Yakelyn Jauregui
"Diverse MJO Genesis and Predictability" Yuntao Wei
"Low-order nonlinear stochastic model and ``past-noise forecasting'' of MJO" Dmitri Kondrashov
"Response of the Madden-Julian Oscillation to Equatorial Indian Ocean Dynamics: Insights from the Norwegian Earth System Model" Ashneel Chandra
"Ensemble Forecasting of the Madden–Julian Oscillation: Analog- Stochastic Weather Generator Approach" Meriem Krouma
"ENSO diversity regulation of the impact of MJO on extreme snowfall events in the Peruvian andes" Juan Sulca (TCPL 201) |
14:00 - 15:00 | Theme 1 Breakout (TCPL 201) |
15:00 - 15:30 | Coffee Break (TCPL Foyer) |
15:30 - 16:00 | Theme 1 Plenary: Breakout Report and Discussion (TCPL 201) |
16:00 - 16:01 | Plenary of Theme 2: Connection between MJO predictability and prediction skills (TCPL 201) |
16:00 - 16:30 | Hyemi Kim: An overview of MJO prediction in operational forecast systems (TCPL 201) |
16:30 - 16:45 | Matthew Janiga: "Paths Toward Improving Operational Prediction of Maritime Hazards Associated with the MJO (TCPL 201) |
16:45 - 17:00 | Pallav Ray: Precipitation-induced surface sensible heat flux improves simulated diurnal precipitation during MJO in the Maritime Continent (TCPL 201) |
17:00 - 17:15 | Shuyi Chen: Assessing Predictability and Prediction Skill of the MJO Large-scale Precipitation using Observations and ECMWF S2S Reforecasts (TCPL 201) |
17:15 - 17:30 | Hai Lin: Improving the MJO forecast skill in the ECCC S2S system (TCPL 201) |
17:30 - 19:30 |
Dinner ↓ A buffet dinner is served daily between 5:30pm and 7:30pm in Vistas Dining Room, top floor of the Sally Borden Building. (Vistas Dining Room) |
Tuesday, May 27 | |
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07:00 - 08:45 |
Breakfast ↓ Breakfast is served daily between 7 and 9am in the Vistas Dining Room, the top floor of the Sally Borden Building. (Vistas Dining Room) |
08:30 - 08:45 | Judith Berner: Improving MJO propagation via an online Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) -based state-dependent model-error correction (TCPL 201) |
08:45 - 09:00 | Youmin Tang: MJO potential predictability and Predictable Mode of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in Boreal Summer (TCPL 201) |
09:00 - 09:15 | Danni Du: Improved MJO prediction across the Maritime Continent with Sea Surface Salinity Assimilation (Online) |
09:15 - 10:00 | Theme 2 Breakout (TCPL 201) |
10:00 - 10:30 | Coffee Break (TCPL Foyer) |
10:30 - 11:10 | Theme 2 Breakout (cont.) (TCPL 201) |
11:10 - 11:28 | Plenary of Theme 2: Breakout Report and Discussion (Online) |
11:29 - 11:30 |
Group Photo ↓ Meet in foyer of TCPL to participate in the BIRS group photo. The photograph will be taken outdoors, so dress appropriately for the weather. Please don't be late, or you might not be in the official group photo! (TCPL Foyer) |
11:30 - 13:00 |
Lunch ↓ Lunch is served daily between 11:30am and 1:30pm in the Vistas Dining Room, the top floor of the Sally Borden Building. (Vistas Dining Room) |
13:00 - 13:01 | Plenary of Theme 3: Numerical, theoretical, observational and AI/ML approaches to MJO predictability (TCPL 201) |
13:01 - 13:30 | Daehyun Kim: Estimating and understanding the predictability of the MJO using observations, numerical models, and AI/ML methods (TCPL 201) |
13:30 - 13:45 | Da Yang: What are the sources of predictability for the MJO in deep learning models? (TCPL 201) |
13:45 - 14:00 | Kirsten Mayer: Exploring the Relative Importance of the MJO and ENSO to North Pacific Subseasonal Predictability with an Interpretable Neural Network (TCPL 201) |
14:00 - 14:15 | Dimitrios Giannakis: Characterizing intraseasonal and interannual climate variability with operator-theoretic techniques (TCPL 201) |
14:15 - 14:30 | Pallav Ray: Land-atmosphere interactions and the MJO: Recent developments and opportunities (TCPL 201) |
14:30 - 14:45 | Tamaki Suematsu: Construction of a reservoir computing machine learning model for MJO prediction (TCPL 201) |
14:45 - 15:00 | Discussion (TCPL 201) |
15:00 - 15:30 | Coffee Break (TCPL Foyer) |
15:30 - 17:30 | Poster Session 1 (TCPL Lounge) |
17:30 - 19:30 |
Dinner ↓ A buffet dinner is served daily between 5:30pm and 7:30pm in Vistas Dining Room, top floor of the Sally Borden Building. (Vistas Dining Room) |
Wednesday, May 28 | |
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07:00 - 08:45 |
Breakfast ↓ Breakfast is served daily between 7 and 9am in the Vistas Dining Room, the top floor of the Sally Borden Building. (Vistas Dining Room) |
08:30 - 09:00 | Poster Plenary: Discussions on Posters (TCPL 201) |
09:00 - 10:00 | Theme 3 Breakout (TCPL 201) |
10:00 - 10:30 | Coffee Break (TCPL Foyer) |
10:30 - 11:00 | Theme 3 Breakout (continued) (TCPL 201) |
11:00 - 11:30 | Theme 3 Plenary: Breakout Report and Discussion (TCPL 201) |
11:30 - 13:00 |
Lunch ↓ Lunch is served daily between 11:30am and 1:30pm in the Vistas Dining Room, the top floor of the Sally Borden Building. (Vistas Dining Room) |
13:30 - 17:30 | Free Afternoon (Banff National Park) |
17:30 - 19:30 |
Dinner ↓ A buffet dinner is served daily between 5:30pm and 7:30pm in Vistas Dining Room, top floor of the Sally Borden Building. (Vistas Dining Room) |
Thursday, May 29 | |
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07:00 - 08:45 |
Breakfast ↓ Breakfast is served daily between 7 and 9am in the Vistas Dining Room, the top floor of the Sally Borden Building. (Vistas Dining Room) |
08:45 - 08:46 | Plenary of Theme 4: Connection between predictability of the MJO and other weather-climate phenomena (TCPL 201) |
08:45 - 09:15 | Frederic Vitart: An overview of the modulation of MJO prediction skill by other models of variability in sub-seasonal forecasts (TCPL 201) |
09:15 - 09:35 | Brandon Kerns: Linking MJO Precipitation Patterns to Tropical Cyclone Formation Using Machine Learning (TCPL 201) |
09:35 - 10:00 | Zhixiao Zhang: Data-Driven Parameterization of Convective Organization and Its Impact on the MJO (Online) |
10:00 - 10:30 | Coffee Break (TCPL Foyer) |
10:30 - 10:50 | Kai Huang: Distorted MJO Propagation by QBO through Multi-Scale Interactions over the Maritime Continent (Online) |
10:50 - 11:10 | Sopia Lestari: Characteristics of Stratiform and Convective Rain Rates under Seasonal Changes and MJO Propagation over Jakarta, the Maritime Continent (Online) |
11:10 - 11:20 | Samson Hagos: A link between African surface temperature and the eastward shift of precipitation over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent region (Online) |
11:20 - 11:30 | Discussions (TCPL 201) |
11:30 - 13:00 |
Lunch ↓ Lunch is served daily between 11:30am and 1:30pm in the Vistas Dining Room, the top floor of the Sally Borden Building. (Vistas Dining Room) |
13:00 - 15:00 | Theme 4 breakout session (TCPL 201) |
15:00 - 15:30 | Coffee Break (TCPL Foyer) |
15:30 - 17:00 | Theme 4 breakout session (TCPL 201) |
17:00 - 17:30 | Theme 4 Plenary: Breakout Report and Discussion (TCPL 201) |
17:30 - 19:30 |
Dinner ↓ A buffet dinner is served daily between 5:30pm and 7:30pm in Vistas Dining Room, top floor of the Sally Borden Building. (Vistas Dining Room) |
Friday, May 30 | |
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07:00 - 08:45 |
Breakfast ↓ Breakfast is served daily between 7 and 9am in the Vistas Dining Room, the top floor of the Sally Borden Building. (Vistas Dining Room) |
09:00 - 10:00 | Plenary: Summery (TCPL 201) |
10:00 - 10:30 | Coffee Break (TCPL Foyer) |
10:30 - 11:30 | Plenary: Action Items (TCPL 201) |
10:30 - 11:00 |
Checkout by 11AM ↓ 5-day workshop participants are welcome to use BIRS facilities (TCPL ) until 3 pm on Friday, although participants are still required to checkout of the guest rooms by 11AM. (Front Desk - Professional Development Centre) |
12:00 - 13:30 | Lunch from 11:30 to 13:30 (Vistas Dining Room) |