Organized tropical convection and large-scale circulation: Theory, modeling, and observations (11w5047)

Objectives

Despite the recent advancement in theory, observation, and modeling to improve our ability of understanding, simulating, and predicting tropical organized convective systems, many fundamental issues need to be fully addressed:
(1) Given the observed self-similarity in convective development, what mechanisms distinguish the generation of tropical perturbations of different scales and propagating speeds (e.g., the MJO vs. convectively coupled Kelvin wave)?
(2) How does the convective multiscale interaction occur in conjunction with convective interaction with the environment (e.g., moisture)?
(3) What is the untapped potential and limitation of cumulus parameterization in weather and climate models in representing tropical organized multiscale convective systems and their interaction with the large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics?
(4) How can new theoretical insights guide innovative data analysis on tropical organized multiscale convective systems and their interaction with the large scales, especially in the context of the new generation of satellite observations (e.g., TRMM, A-Train) and field campaigns in the near future?
(5) How can new observations and numerical simulations inspire more theoretical ideas?
(6) How should innovative numerical experiments be designed to test new ideas from theories and observations?

The dynamics of organized multiscale convective systems in the tropics presents one of the most challenging problems in contemporary dynamical meteorology. Its expedited progress requires new developments in applied mathematiques, fluid mechanics, scientific computing, observations, statistical physics, and cross-fertilizing between all these fields.

Tropical meteorology has experienced some fundamental advances in recent years, both theoretical and observational (due in large measure to significant improvements in satellite databases). However the sparseness of such data, in both space and time, limits their applicability and calls for the development of new statistical and applied math tools and expertise from cross disciplines for their analysis. Higher resolution coverage with radar balloons and ship-borne data is still not feasible to the extent of the tropics. Thus, targeted field campaigns motivated by theoretical work are highly desirable. The improvement of operational models in the tropics passes both through the theory and the intuition gained from the effective analysis of the observational records. There is an immediate need for new developments in the theoretical and modeling aspects of tropical meteorology. The proposed workshop would focus on the following topics:

� Vertical structure and self-similarity of large scale tropical convective systems
� Effects of the MJO on monsoon dynamics and rainfall
� MJO initiation and tropical extra-tropical teleconnections
� Atmosphere-Ocean coupling and the MJO
� Climate predictability and data assimilation in the tropics.

It would bring leading experts from around the world to discuss new insights in tropical convective systems, blending in theoreticians (mathematicians and physicists), observation experts, and operational modelers, together with junior researchers such postdocs and students, to foster new and strengthen existing interactions between the three communities. This will be beneficial to everybody, and in particular for the areas of statistical predictions and data assimilations that are new to the tropics.